Good Moment

The good moment of the IBEX 25 September 2009 the markets are entering a bubble phase, and it is easy it extends until the end of the year, Crispin Odey of Odey.While the economies of Europe are facing the recovery, Spain continues downhill and the downturn in its economy has come to stay, at least until 2010, the year in which expects a contraction in GDP of 0.6% and an unemployment rate that reached 20.4 per cent of the economically active population (PEA). The Spanish economy is still depressed but it seems that not has realized the stock market that has seen a remarkable recovery so far of the year. The IBEX 35 is located at 11.695,9 points and the expectation of the market passes by knowing when to break the 12,000-point barrier. It went mad IBEX? It is a dangerous bubble brewing? Beatriz Galdon in five days warns about this possibility with specific figures: since reaching its minimum level, the IBEX accumulates a increase of 73% and in the year accumulated a 28.5% increase, 3.55% above the level seen prior to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. In principle it seems too much for an economy into a painful recession, although at the same time we must remember the IBEX had better times such as when towards the month of November 2007 was on the verge of breaking the barrier of the 15,900 points.

Luis Benguerel’s Proexportables, in the same note explained the phenomenon: the Ibex has ceased to be a commuter train to be a bird. There to find resistance, because the index is technically free climb. The more important are the fall brackets. Probably for those who do not trust too in the analysis of graphs, Benguerel opinion have not proved too compelling. However the evidence attests that in many cases the graphs provide key information to predict the behaviour of an index or the price of a stock.